EIA issues 2012 cellulosic biofuel predictions

Ethanol Producer Magazine
By Kris Bevill November 16, 2011

The U.S. DOE’s Energy Information Administration predicts that only six cellulosic biofuel producers will make fuel available for sale in 2012, producing a total of just 6.9 million gallons of fuel over the course of the coming year. The agency’s annual fuel production estimates were submitted recently to the U.S. EPA as required by the Clean Air Act and will be used as the basis for the EPA’s 2012 renewable fuel standard (RFS) volumes, due to be finalized by Nov. 30.

In June, the EPA proposed a 2012 cellulosic biofuel volume range of 3.45 to 12.9 million gallons, drastically lower than the original 500 million gallon target set by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. The proposed reduction was somewhat anticipated by the biofuels industry, which has failed to scale-up its cellulosic production capabilities at the pace intended initially due a variety of reasons. Producers argued at a public hearing this summer that the EPA should finalize a volume on the high side of the proposal in order to continue to encourage investment in the industry, but the EIA’s predictions, which are based on publicly available information and on discussions with potential producers, indicate that actual production will likely be closer to the low end of the EPA’s proposed spectrum. The EIA has also determined that several companies named by the EPA in its proposed rule will not be mechanically able to produce fuel for sale next year.

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