Center for Advanced BioEnergy Research, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Friday, August 31, 2007

Iowa State Researcher Studies Sustainability Of Bioeconomy



What if that happens again next year?

What if farmers decide against crop rotations and plant corn on the same fields, year after year? Or, what if farmers begin growing biomass crops such as switchgrass for the production of ethanol from plant fiber?

Will soil lose fertility? Will erosion increase? Will the amount of energy needed to produce biofuels go up or down? Will farm income increase or decrease?

Will the bioeconomy be sustainable?

Robert Anex, an Iowa State associate professor of agricultural and biosystems engineering and associate director of Iowa State's Office of Biorenewables Programs, is working to answer those and other questions about the transition to an agriculture that produces biomass as well as food and fiber.

One answer is that American agriculture is likely to change.

"It may well be that the development of biomass-based crops production systems can have as profound an impact on agriculture and its environmental footprint as it does on energy security and the global climate," Anex and co-authors Andrew Heggenstaller and Matt Liebman of Iowa State's agronomy department and Lee Lynd and Mark Laser of Dartmouth College wrote in a recent paper. "Whether this is a positive impact or a negative impact will depend largely on how biomass feedstocks are produced and converted, and the extent to which these two activities are integrated."

Physorg.com, August 31, 2007

Visualizing Future Bioenergy Harvests

By Susanne Retka Schill

What might harvest look like in the future of cellulosic ethanol and bioenergy crops? Look to the present, suggests Corey Radtke, principle scientist with the renewable energy and power group at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and conceptualize what will change with the new crops.

For instance, the model right now is to bale dry energy crops, store them for a time, truck them to the biorefinery with short-term storage, grind, pretreat and begin the conversion process. Cost-effectiveness will depend on how many of those steps can be eliminated or combined. "We could save huge amounts of money if we get the format right at the combine," he says. Researchers at INL are looking at such issues as the properties of ground feedstocks with a wide range of particle sizes and potential fire hazards. For example, dry biomass burns easily, and dust can be explosive.

With corn stover or wheat straw, the biomass crop will most likely be a coproduct of the grain harvest. A collaborative effort between INL and the University of Kentucky is looking at whether parts of the plant will be more valuable to collect while other parts are left in the field for soil building. In corn, for example, they are looking at the composition of the cobs, husks, leaves and other parts, Radtke says.

Ethanol Producer Magazine, August 31, 2007

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Farm Progress Show Begins With Emphasis On Biofuels

By The Associated Press
CHAMPAIGN, Ill. (AP) - Corn is front and center at the annual Farm Progess Show, which will got under way Thuesday near Decatur.

Farm Progress Show manager Matt Jungmann says after years of talk about the money farmers might one day make when their corn is turned into ethanol for fuel, the payoff has begun.

American farmers have planted more corn than ever this year and prices have stayed high, largely because of demand for ethanol.

Prices are good for soybeans, too, another crop touted for its biofuel potential.

Jungmann says 475 companies are displaying products ranging from multi-ton combines to high-tech corn and wheat seeds. He expects 100,000 or more people to attend. The staff of the University of Illinois Center for Advanced BioEnergy Research (CABER)are among those attending. The CABER display can be found in the U of I tent, located on West Progress Avenue. Orange and blue Illini flags mark the large U of I tent displays.

Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns is expected to conduct a one-hour program on the 2007 farm bill and keynote a panel session on pending free trade agreements on Wednesday. Johanns' farm bill program will be hosted by broadcaster, Orion Samuelson, at 12:30 CDT on the show grounds. Johanns is then scheduled to join panelists - American Farm Bureau president Bob Stallman and National Pork Producers Council president Jill Appell - in a discussion on the free trade agreements.

WQAD-TV/The Associated Press--August 28, 2007

Friday, August 24, 2007

EPA To Help Businesses Ship 'Green'




Dallas, TX–-Businesses that want to ship “green” can now find truckers who use biodiesel through the EPA SmartWay Grow and Go program.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Biodiesel Board (NBB) announced on Aug 24 they have teamed up to educate the trucking industry about the benefits of biodiesel, and match shippers with truckers using biodiesel.

The SmartWay Transport Partnership is an innovative collaboration between the EPA and the freight industry.

Its goal is to increase energy efficiency while significantly reducing greenhouse gases and air pollution.


EPA, August 24, 2007

Giant Pumpkin Showcases Ethanol


The Great Pumpkin Patch has once again produced a spectacular pumpkin that showcases ethanol, turns heads and wins awards. Endress + Hauser employees are posing by the great ethanol pumpkin.

The ethanol pumpkin, carved by William Hughes from Versailles, Ind., turned out to be one of the award winning pumpkins at the Indiana State Fair. After the fair concluded, the pumpkin made an appearance at Endress + Hauser’s Greenwood, Ind. facility, compliments of uber ethanol supporter Lee Saberson.

The ginormous pumpkin was sculpted to display stalks of corn, the “e” logo and a car. The pumpkin weighs in at more than 400 lbs.

Ethanol Promotion and Information Council, August 24, 2007

Heat-Seeking Bacteria Could Be Key To Cellulosic Ethanol




TMO Renewables, a British company specializing in the production of cellulosic ethanol, is claiming an early victory over its U.S. competitors in the race to create the best replacement for gasoline in cars. "We believe what we've found is not far from the silver bullet, and our demonstration plant will be about showing that. We have the organism people have dreamt of -- it eats nearly anything and it makes ethanol really quickly," said Hamish Curran, the company's CEO, showing off TMO's secret weapon — several bubbling vats of bacteria — in its group laboratories during a recent visit by reporters.

After about two years' worth of painstaking research and genetic manipulation, company scientists discovered and refined the organism they are using to drive the production of their cellulosic ethanol — a heat-seeking rod-shaped bacterium of the geobacillus family. TM242, as they've dubbed it, is a thermophile — a species that thrives in high temperature conditions — that has a high metabolic rate. It is also 300 times more effective at making ethanol than its wild strain counterpart.

TreeHugger, August 24, 2007

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Fungi Make Biodiesel Efficiently At Room Temperature


By Aaron Rowe
Biodiesel Scientists at the Indian Institute of Chemical Technology have found a much better way to make biodiesel. Their new method could lower the cost and increase the energy efficiency of fuel production.

Instead of mixing the ingredients and heating them for hours, the chemical engineers pass sunflower oil and methanol through a bed of pellets made from fungal spores. An enzyme produced by the fungus does the work -- making biodiesel with impressive efficiency.

Last Monday, Ravichandra Potumarthi showed off his work during a poster session at the International Conference on Bioengineering and Nanotechnology. After returning to his lab in Hyderabad, he was able to send out some pictures of his experimental reactor (shown on right) and the fungal pellets.

Wired/Science, August 23, 2007

One Farmer's Biofuel Story: Growing Your Own Grows Up

By Jennifer M. Latzke

Luke Jaeger was fed up with high fuel prices.

A few years ago, as he sat at his desk in his home near Minneola, Kan., Jaeger decided fuel prices were crimping his bottom line and it was time for a different approach to filling his equipment tanks.

Jaeger went online and searched the Oklahoma State University Cooperative Extension Service files, talked with seed salesmen and visited with biodiesel specialists to plan his farm-scale biodiesel facility. But it wasn't until the first seeds were planted that Jaeger's vision of energy independence began to take a definite shape.

Jaeger and his wife Darcy farm with his family in the Clark County area, raising a variety of row crops, including wheat and sorghum. When Jaeger found just how little of their acreage could be devoted to an oil crop production and still meet his farm's energy needs, he knew that it was time for action.

"Dryland farmers, in western Kansas, if they would just put 1 to 2 percent of their farm acres to winter canola or sunflowers, they would have enough acreage to get diesel fuel to run their farm for the whole year," Jaeger said. He planted 60 acres of winter canola because it holds moisture in the soil, similar to sorghum, and because it can protect soil from erosion at even the early stages in its growth cycle. Also, canola seeds have higher oil content, about 40 percent, than other oil crops like sunflowers or soybeans, Jaeger said.

High Plains/Midwest Ag Journal, August 23, 2007

Mustard Seed Could Soon Power Buses, Cars

KSBW-TV
10:09 a.m. PDT August 22, 2007

SANTA CRUZ, Calif. - Farmers in Santa Cruz are hoping to turn a common feedstock into gold -- all for a green cause. Mustard seed, which is locally grown in the area, is being used as a new source for biofuel. Corn and soybeans have been the most common source for biodiesel.

"It's just as good or better oil," said farmer Ken Kimes. "We're going to press this (mustard seed) and get the oil out of it. Then, the oil will go to Pacific Biodiesel, where they will make it into biodiesel."

The fuel will then be used to power buses, cars and farm equipment locally.

KSBW-TV, Monterey, CA, August 23, 2007

Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Japan Seeks To Turn Used Chopsticks Into Biofuel

ABC Australia reports on an effort underway in Japan to convert used chopsticks to biofuels. Japan produces more than 200 pairs of chopsticks per capita each year, using 90,000 tons of wood in the process. The effort is still in the research stage.

Biofuels Digest, August 22, 2007

UF Chooses Florida Crystals For Ethanol Plant

by Julia Neyman

The University of Florida has selected Florida Crystals Corp. as the site to build a cellulosic ethanol plant that will produce 1 million to 2 million gallons of ethanol a year, university officials said.

The plant is financed by a $20 million state grant and will operate as a research and development lab as well as a commercial facility. It is the first of its kind in Florida. Attendees at the Monday meeting where the decision was announced said Florida Crystals was selected over the second front-runner, Memphis, Tenn.-based Buckeye Technologies, because it has a large supply of bagasse biomass and it is already in the sugar business.

South Florida Business Journal, August 22, 2007

Citroën To Launch Flex-Fuel Car In September

By Automotive World staff writer (ANK)

Source: Automotive World

Citroën will launch the C4 BioFlex, a flexible-fuel vehicle using gasoline and ethanol, in September. The first two markets will be France and Sweden, with others to follow.

Citroën says that the C4 BioFlex, a five-door hatchback, features a 110hp (82...

Automotive World, August 22, 2007

Monday, August 20, 2007

Fungi Make Biodiesel Efficiently At Room Temperature

Scientists at the Indian Institute of Chemical Technology have found a much better way to make biodiesel. Their new method could lower the cost and increase the energy efficiency of fuel production.

Instead of mixing the ingredients and heating them for hours, the chemical engineers pass sunflower oil and methanol through a bed of pellets made from fungal spores. An enzyme produced by the fungus does the work -- making biodiesel with impressive efficiency.

Last Monday, Ravichandra Potumarthi showed off his work during a poster session last Monday at the International Conference on Bioengineering and Nanotechnology. After returning to his lab in Hyderabad, he was able to send out some pictures of his experimental reactor (shown on right) and the fungal pellets.

Typically, biodiesel is made by mixing methanol with lye and vegetable oil and then heating the brew for several hours. This links the methanol to the oils to produce energetic called esters. Unfortunately, heating the mixture is a huge waste of energy, and a major selling point of alternative fuels is efficiency. An enzyme called lipase can link link oil to methanol without any extra heating, but the pure protein is expensive.

Potumarthi has a simple solution. Why bother purifying the lipase? It would be easier to just find an organism that produces plenty of the enzyme and squish it into pellets. In this case, the fungus Metarhizium anisopliae does the trick.

Wired Science, August 20, 2007

SunEthanol Announces It Has Funding to Commercialize U of Mass. 'Q Microbe'

Amherst, Massachusetts [RenewableEnergyAccess.com]
SunEthanol Inc., a biofuels technology company, announced last week that it has secured funding to commercialize the Q Microbe, a unique natural bacteria capable of converting cellulose into ethanol.

Series A financing for developing patent-pending cellulosic ethanol technology around the Q microbe has been provided by VeraSun Energy, Battery Ventures, Long River Ventures and AST Capital. SunEthanol's Q Microbe technology, licensed from the University of Massachusetts, has the potential to make the production of ethanol from cellulose economically competitive.

"We are harnessing the power of a naturally occurring microbe in order to convert various forms of biomass into fuel," said SunEthanol CEO Jef Sharp. "In addition to funding the growth of the company, I am very encouraged by the synergies that result from this round of financing. It will enable us to accelerate the commercialization of our novel technology."

RenewableEnergyAccess.com, August 20, 2007

Cincinnati State Introduces Renewable Energy Major

BY MIKE BOYER | MBOYER@ENQUIRER.COM

During a tour last year of the EarthConnection, a learning center at the College of Mount St. Joseph in Delhi Township retrofitted with solar heating panels and other energy-efficient equipment, Larry Feist was struck by all the electro-mechanical controls they required.

"There were all sorts of motors and controllers and variable-speed drives," said Feist, who was named chairman in April 2006 of the electro-mechanical engineering program at Cincinnati State Technical and Community College in Clifton.

Charged with boosting program enrollment, which has dwindled to about 60 to 70 students, Feist saw an opportunity.

Next month, that opportunity becomes a reality as Cincinnati State introduces the first major in renewable-energy technology approved by the Ohio Board of Regents.

There are a handful of other programs in Ohio aimed at training installers in energy-efficient products, but those are targeted workforce-development efforts.

The program is built around Cincinnati State's two-year associate's degree in electro-mechanical engineering technology. Feist, a Cincinnati State grad, sees it preparing graduates to work in renewable-energy manufacturing and equipment installation and performing energy audits. It also will provide a pathway to bachelor's degrees in either electro-mechanical or chemical engineering.

The program, which includes courses in the electronics of energy systems, basic energy efficiency and audits, fuel cells and solar and wind devices, also offers a one-year certificate program for engineers and technicians who want to broaden their skills.

Cincinnati Enquirer, August 20, 2007

Va. Tech Converting Poultry Litter To Bio-Oil

By Lori Greiner

BLACKSBURG, Va., August 20, 2007 -- Foster Agblevor, associate professor of biological systems engineering, is leading the team of researchers in the College of Agriculture and Life Sciences at Virginia Tech developing transportable pyrolysis units that will convert poultry litter into bio-oil, providing an economical disposal system while reducing environmental effects and biosecurity issues.

Agblevor will present his paper, “Thermochemical conversion: A dual tool for bio-oil production and a solution to environmental waste disposal,” as part of the session “Characterization of Fossil and Biofuels: Challenges and Progress” during the 234th American Chemical Society National Meeting in Boston on August 19-23.

Agblevor is working with poultry growers to test technology that would convert poultry litter to three value-added byproducts – pyrodiesel (bio-oil), producer gas, and fertilizer. The pyrolysis unit heats the litter until it vaporizes. The vapor is then condensed to produce the bio-oil, and a slow release fertilizer is recovered from the reactor. The gas can then be used to operate the pyrolysis unit, making it a self-sufficient system.

More than 5.6 million tons of poultry litter are produced each year in the United States. The litter consists of a mixture of bedding, manure, feathers, and spilled feed. According to Agblevor, current disposal methods such as land application and feeding to cattle are under pressure because of pollution of water resources due to leaching and runoff and concern about mad cow disease contamination in the food chain. There are also concerns that poultry litter can harbor diseases such as avian influenza. While avian influenza is not harmful to humans, people can spread it on their shoes, with their vehicles, or through movement of litter.

Virginia Tech News Service, August 20, 2007

Friday, August 17, 2007

U of I's Hauser: Increased Ethanol Production Will Not Affect Gas Prices

Increasing ethanol production in the United States will have a negligible effect on gas prices because of the biofuel’s minor status in the fuel spectrum.

That was part of the message from Dr. Robert Hauser, head of the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign UIUC).

Hauser, along with fellow UIUC professsor Darrel Good, spoke to a group of 50 members of the Grain and Feed Association of Illinois attending a seminar on the economics of ethanol held in Effingham, IL Aug. 13.

Hauser said there are five factors that determine the future viability of the dry mill ethanol industry.

• Subsidies. The level of federal subsidies will be a significant factor in the level of ethanol production. • RFS. The renewable fuels standard must be maintained.

• Blends. Fuel blends could play a significant role if increased above 10% ethanol.

• Tariffs. Maintain existing policies that provide U.S. producers an even playing field.

• Cellulosic ethanol. The industry is still waiting for breakthroughs in this area.

Grainnet, August 15, 2007

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

LSU Profs Work To Improve Efficiency Of Ethanol

BATON ROUGE - Lowering fuel emission levels is a topic facing constant scrutiny by the global public. Rising gas costs, environmental concerns and conflicts in oil-producing areas have made consumers, corporations and researchers more than curious about the potential of alternative, or "green," fuels, such as ethanol.

James Spivey, McLaurin Shivers professor of chemical engineering at LSU, and Challa Kumar, group leader of nanofabrication at LSU's Center for Advanced Microstructures and Devices, or CAMD, are working diligently with partners from across the nation to make ethanol fuel an efficient reality.

Together with Clemson University and Oak Ridge National Laboratories, the researchers received $2.9 million in funding from the U.S. Department of Energy, or DOE, and its cost-sharing partner, Conoco-Phillips, the third-largest integrated energy company in the nation.

"We're working with our project partners to produce ethanol from a coal-derived syngas, a mixture of primarily carbon monoxide and hydrogen. The United States has tremendous reserves of coal, but converting it to affordable, clean fuels is a challenge - one that we are addressing in this DOE-funded project," said Spivey. "Because ethanol is a liquid, it can be more easily distributed to the end user than gaseous hydrogen. It can be converted into a hydrogen-rich gas at the point of use, such as a fuel cell. The net result is clean energy produced from a domestic resource."

James Goodwin, chairman of the chemical and biomolecular engineering department at Clemson, and David Bruce, associate professor of chemical and biomolecular engineering at Clemson, are using advanced computational methods to identify new catalysts and test them with techniques such as isotopic labeling.

BrightSurf.com/August 15, 2007

First University In Nation To Use Landfill Gas As Primary Energy Source

by Trey Granger on August 14th, 2007

DURHAM, N.H. - The University of New Hampshire, in cooperation with Waste Management of New Hampshire, Inc., has launched EcoLine, a landfill gas project that will pipe enriched and purified gas from Waste Management’s landfill in Rochester to the Durham campus, UNH President Mark Huddleston announced today. UNH is the first university in the nation to undertake a project of this magnitude.

The renewable, carbon-neutral landfill gas, from Waste Management’s Turnkey Recycling and Environmental Enterprise (TREE) facility in Rochester, N.H., will replace commercial natural gas as the primary fuel in UNH’s cogeneration plant, enabling UNH to receive 80-85 percent of its energy from a renewable source.

“By reducing the university’s dependence on fossil fuels and reducing our greenhouse gas emissions, EcoLine is an environmentally and fiscally responsible initiative,” said Huddleston. “UNH is proud to lead the nation and our peer institutions in this landmark step toward sustainability.”

Construction is set to begin immediately on a landfill gas processing plant in Rochester which will purify the gas, and the 12.7 mile underground pipeline which will transport the gas from the plant to the university’s Durham campus. UNH is expected to fuel its cogeneration plant with landfill gas by the fall of 2008. Estimated cost of the project, including the construction of a second generator at UNH, is $45 million.

Earth 911/August 24, 2007

Poet’s Project Liberty to Utilize Corn Cobs for Cellulosic Ethanol

by Myke Feinman, BioFuels Journal Editor

Sioux Falls, SD--Corn cobs and fractionated hull (pericarp) fiber will be the feedstock Poet utilizes to produce 25 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol per year (MMGY) at a plant to be built adjacent to its plant in Emmetsburg, IA.

Poet, Sioux Falls, SD, announced at the Fuel Ethanol Workshop in St. Louis, MO, June 27, that the company had successfully produced ethanol from corn cob.

Of the 25 MMGY of cellulosic ethanol production, 40% will come from the hulls fractionated corn kernels used in its existing, adjacent dry mill ethanol plant; the remaining 60% from the corn cobs, which contain 16% more carbohydrates (sugars) than corn.

Poet’s $200+ million Project Liberty will include a U.S. Department of Energy grant of $80 million.

The project will add 75 MMGY of capacity to the Emmetsburg site (25 MMGY to be of cellulosic production), that currently produces 50 MMGY of dry grind corn ethanol.

Once the DOE funding is received, Poet predicts the plant will be constructed in about 30 months, putting completion sometime in late 2010, according to Dr. Mark Stowers, Poet vice president of research and development.

Grainnet, Aug. 15, 2007

U Mass Spinoff Looks At Bacteria Role In Ethanol Production

SunEthanol wants to streamline ethanol production from plant cellulose, using bacteria to do the heavy lifting.

The company, spun off from the University of Massachusetts, on Tuesday announced that it has raised a first round of funding for an undisclosed amount and intends to raise a second round later this year. Investors are ethanol producer VeraSun Energy, Battery Ventures, Long River Ventures and AST Capital.

The investment will be used to optimize a naturally occurring microbe, which the company calls the Q Microbe, to make ethanol, a car fuel. The microbe was discovered by Susan Leschine, University of Massachusetts professor of microbiology and company adviser, in the soil of New England.

Science, Aug. 15, 2007

Monday, August 13, 2007

DDG Glut May Be On The Way

08/10/2007 1:15:28 PM

By Todd Neeley DTN Staff Reporter

ST. PAUL, Minn. (DTN) -- Ethanol industry growth in Eastern Corn Belt states could eventually pose a problem: A glut of dried distillers grains.

While DDGs have gained international popularity as an animal feed, states such as Indiana, Illinois, Ohio and Michigan just don't have enough animals to keep up with supply, said Jim Hansen, chief operating officer of Poet Nutrition based in Sioux Falls, S.D.

DDGs are the remaining co-product of ethanol production. The grain consists mostly of starches and proteins and is considered to be a viable ruminant feed substitute for corn.

"This could create a supply/demand imbalance," Hansen said during the American Coalition for Ethanol conference in St. Paul, Minn., Wednesday. "We cannot slow the ethanol industry down because we are not feeding the product," he added.

DTN, August 13, 2007

Monday, August 6, 2007

Sorghum Being Considered for BioFuel Source

HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Gulf Ethanol Corporation, (OTC:GFET), has advanced its plans for an enhanced ethanol production facility along the Texas Gulf coast that could use the new sorghum plant developed by Texas A&M as its primary feed stock, Texas A&M University and Chevron Corp (NYSE CVX) recently announced the major new alternative fuels initiative.
The development of “freakishly tall sorghum plants” was designed as an ideal feedstock for Ethanol production by Texas A&M. “Standing nearly 20 feet tall, these plants are more than twice the height of regular sorghum and yield double the crop per acre. They can survive on little water. They have been bred not to flower, thus trapping more energy within.” (Source: Brett Clanton, Houston Chronicle)
"This is a new paradigm for bioenergy production," said Bill McCutchen, deputy associate director at Texas A&M's Texas Agricultural Experiment Station.
The Department of Energy has announced nearly $400 million in funding for the establishment of three bio-energy research centers, “while oil companies including BP (NYSE BP), Exxon Mobil (NYSE XOM), and Chevron (NYSE CVX) have given money to universities for biofuels research.”
“Because we see sorghum as the ideal non-food feed stock for ethanol production in Texas, we embrace the Texas A&M initiative as a key step forward in providing economical feed stocks for our Texas ethanol plants,” JT Cloud, Gulf Ethanol’s President explained, “The long term success of ethanol as an alternative fuel must be based on the development of efficient non-food sources for ethanol production.”
Last month, Texas Gov. Rick Perry outlined a new bioenergy strategy that will encourage more research at state universities on noncorn ethanol and other renewables, with an eye toward getting them to market faster. As part of the effort, he pledged $5 million to Texas A&M for research.

Link: http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20070806005762&newsLang=en

Wednesday, August 1, 2007

European Farmers May Also Benefit From BioEnergy

It's not only American farmers that stand to benefit from the biofuels boom, European farmers are also looking to capitalize on this growing industry:

According to a report released yesterday (31st July) by the European Commission "Bioenergy production represents one of the major main stream opportunities for agriculture over the medium to long term in the EU". The report, which looks at the prospects for agricultural markets within the EU, continues by saying; "The 10% incorporation rate realised over this long period until 2020 together with newly available technologies assures a sustainable path in providing the EU with renewable transport fuels without disrupting domestic and world markets. Imports would serve around 20% of the biofuel production. About half of them would be first generation feedstock and mainly oilseeds and vegetable oils."

The report estimates that under a 10% minimum obligation about 59 mio t of cereals or about 18% of domestic use would be used as first and including straw also as second generation feed stock. Most of the cereals used would be soft wheat and maize, the rest would fall mainly on barley. The projected yield increases of about 1% per year would lead to 38 mio t more cereal production in 2020 than currently seen. Moreover 2 mio ha of additional cereals grown on set aside land could provide some 14 mio t.

It continues; "Domestic use of cereals would significantly increase while exports would decrease over time. Cereal prices would appear stable and reach 120 EUR/t in real terms or 150 EUR/t in nominal terms. Maize prices would be significantly above intervention prices following the increase of domestic use and the subsequent real stabilisation of the cereal price complex. The long run impact of biofuels on cereal prices is in the range of 3% to 6% as compared to 2006 prices. The second generation biofuel production would reach about a third of the domestic biofuel production largely by incorporating the straw and wood Prospects for agricultural markets and income in the EU based cellulosic material into production. Of this wood based materials some imports of 1.75 mtoe equivalent could be expected. "